Orateur
Description
Climate change is expected to affect the distribution of species worldwide. Understanding how these changes impact the species distribution is essential for designing conservation strategies and sustainable management approaches. Uapaca kirkiana Müll. Arg. (Phyllanthaceae) holds significant ecological and socioeconomic importance in Malawi, southern Africa, but is highly threatened in its habitat. This study aims to investigate the impact of climate change on ecological niche of U. kirkiana and to identify suitable habitats for its conservation and cultivation in Malawi. The maximum entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm was used to model the distribution of this species based on 21 environmental variables and 480 occurrences of the species. Habitat prioritisation was performed using Zonation software. Our results show that the isothermality (15%), the mean temperature of the coldest quarter (12%), the mean temperature of the driest quarter (10%), and the maximum temperature of the warmest month (8%) contributed significantly to the potential distribution of U. kirkiana. Overall, 10.24% of Malawi is highly suitable for U. kirkiana. This suitable habitat is projected to decrease by 2.23% and 4.03% under the script SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios respectively, by 2055. Priority areas (5- 15%) for the conservation and cultivation of U. kirkiana were manly located in the Northern region (21%) and Central region (12.67%), in contrast to the Southern region (10.54%). Our findings suggest that climate change will lead to a reduction in the species' suitable habitat and a shift along the South-North gradient. These findings underscore the urgency of incorporating climate change projections into conservation planning. Identifying and prioritizing suitable habitats in the Northern and Central regions will be crucial for the effective conservation and sustainable
